What are we to make of Juniper Oak, the latest and largest-ever joint military exercise held by the US and Israeli militaries in late January, as part of the longstanding Juniper series? Based on the headlines, the point of the exercise is self-evident. “US, Israel Send Message to Iran With Biggest-Ever Military Exercises,” a typical headline read. While the slick videos from the exercises are certainly impressive, the consensus view missed the mark, both on the US intention and on Israel’s calculation.
For one, US officials dismissed the idea that Iran was the target of Juniper Oak from the get go, even as its surrogates were selling the proposition that the Biden administration was seriously considering a military alternative against the Islamic Republic. In other words, the administration was pursuing its usual policy, while its outside flacks and PR people were spinning yarn. While saying one thing and doing another is hardly a strategy invented by Obama-Biden staffers, it is hard to recall another US administration for which misdirection was such a constant instrument of policy.
It’s not difficult to see why misdirection is needed, given the administration’s absolute and unbreakable commitment to reviving the Iran deal. The administration’s point man, Robert Malley, is said to be meeting and exchanging messages still with the Iranians, even as their government has repeatedly jilted the Americans and struggles with the challenges of daily street demonstrations at home. Malley is further rumored to have pressed the Europeans not to designate the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group.
The problem with the framing of the Juniper Oak exercise, then, should be obvious. How is the “message” supposed to work if nobody believes it—not the Americans, not the Israelis, not the Iranians, and not the ostensible secondary audience in the Gulf?
The question encapsulates Israel’s dilemma. On the one hand, it behooves the Israelis to showcase airtight closeness with the Americans and to foster the perception that they are working day and night to jointly develop military options with Pentagon war-planners. On the other hand, if nobody believes that the US is in fact onboard, the display would paradoxically underscore not only the idea that Israel’s faith in its American big brother is misplaced, but perhaps also that Israel may not have the ability to act independently.
